Although BEA has revised the statistics, delaying the onset of the crisis by 6-9 months, this clever statistical maneuver does not take into account debt fragmentation.
Overview of the Current Economic Landscape
The current cost of living crisis (inflation on essential goods and services + debt service cost run-up) is hitting households that have no savings or have savings within 1-3 months of consumption, and these account for almost 70% of the affected population.
Relative to December 2019, non-mortgage interest expenses have increased by 45%, rising from $350 billion to $505 billion year-over-year. In terms of income, this represents a 0.35 percentage point increase, from 2.15% to 2.5% (the highest level since September 2008).
Compared to 2021, the change in the vector of the Fed's MPC (Marginal Propensity to Consume) has resulted in an increase in debt service costs by 1 percentage point relative to revenues.
This may seem like an insignificant change, but the cycle of QE tightening from 2004 to 2007 only increased interest costs by 0.8 percentage points. Now, it is twice as fast and stronger.
A non-mortgage interest expense of 2.5% on debt is a substantial amount, considering that the historical high was 3.05% in late 2000.
The current level of interest rates and the volume of loans on the balance sheet project interest costs to reach 3.3% in 9-12 months due to the increasing weighted average interest rates and the rotation/replacement of the loan portfolio under new lending terms.
Current statistics consider the aggregate balance sheets of households in the US. However, when examining loans, it's essential to take into account the balance sheets of low and middle-income individuals, where the proportion of debt service costs relative to income is much higher than that of the upper-income group.
The Relationship Between Rising Interest Costs and Consumption
Rising interest costs always have a correlation with consumption, but it's an inverse relationship. Every loan taken now results in a reduction in future consumption.
The debt scheme functions effectively as long as the cost of servicing debt increases proportionally to personal income. The scheme breaks down when income growth slows down and/or declines, and debt service costs rise, either due to increasing interest rates, higher borrowing, or both, akin to a nuclear reaction.
Conclusion
In the face of rising interest costs and mounting household debt, it becomes increasingly imperative to assess the economic landscape and its implications for various income groups. As our analysis has shown, the projected interest costs are expected to reach 3.3% within the next 9-12 months, driven by increasing weighted average interest rates and changes in lending terms. However, this is just one facet of the complex relationship between debt and consumption.