The main question for the next six months is whether the placement of over 1 trillion in government bonds over two years will succeed or fail. This is not as trivial as it seems. Since June 2023, the...

The United States has a phenomenally growing dependence on foreign capital. Whereas the negative balance of the international investment position used to be only 1.2 trillion (December 2007), it has...

US inflation is accelerating at almost twice the normal rate. Analysis of GDP Deflator TrendsThe elevated inflationary backdrop is now reflected directly in the GDP deflator: the increase in the GDP...

Industrial production in the US shows no signs of revival. There is no point in recounting the extremely noisy monthly data as it shifts the focus of attention from medium-term trends to random short...

US inflation rose by 0.38% month-over-month (MoM), year-to-date (YTD) for the three months to 0.38%, up from 0.26% in the six months prior. This is well above the medium-term trend, with average month...

What's happening to the Fed's balance sheet? Fed assets are down more than $1.5 trillion from their peak (from $9,014 billion to $7,490 billion), but that represents less than 32% of the accumulated...

Pressure on the U.S. debt market will increase as medium- and long-term borrowing ramps up. The U.S. Treasury ended March with a cash position of 775 billion, up from 837 billion on February 24 and...

The cycle of sustained margin expansion for U.S. companies ended in 2021, thus far only compensating for the failure of 2022. Free cash flow represents the financial resources remaining with a compan...

Debt overload is not currently a focal point for the global community, despite the ongoing growth of issues as debts are refinanced. This process cannot be expedited due to the debt structure. Howeve...

The safety margin of the U.S. banking system is not as large as it may seem. The Rise in Delinquencies and Charge-offsThe rise in delinquencies and charge-offs is associated with extreme growth in lo...

One of the main drivers of U.S. market growth in Q4 2023 was corporate stock buybacks. Record-breaking Trends in 2023 and BeyondThe U.S. market is up 35% in 2023, the highest gain since 1997, and Nov...

The market valuation of U.S. government bonds traded in the open market is 24.4 trillion at the end of 2023 (26.3 trillion at par minus 1.8 trillion in losses due to securities impairment under the Fe...

Net savings as a percentage of gross national income (GNI) in the U.S. has collapsed into negative territory for the first time since the 2008 - 2009 crisis and 2020.Components of Net SavingsHow shoul...

What will happen to the U.S. debt market once active offerings begin in June 2023? Placements totaled 2.5 trillion, according to the U.S. Treasury's calculations based on U.S. Treasury data. In the...

In 2023, net total foreign capital inflows into all dollar assets, excluding cash, reached a record $1.1 trillion, according to the U.S. Treasury Department's calculations based on the TIC report, mat...

Since the beginning of 2024 (first 1.5 months to Feb 14 inclusive), there has been a decrease of $70 billion or 0.6% compared to December 2023. Total Bank Credit GrowthFor 2023, total bank credit in...

Something has broken in the steady upward trend of US consumer demand, which has persisted over the past year. Retail Sales DataRetail sales collapsed by 0.8% month-over-month (m/m), and it should be...

The U.S. budget deficit is growing at a crisis pace amid soaring interest costs. Revenue and Spending TrendsIn fiscal year 2024 (October 2023 - January 2024), revenues totaled $1.58 trillion, compare...

Can the market exist for an extended period in isolation from fundamentals? No. Understanding FundamentalsBut what are "fundamentals"? From 2017 through 2019, the average annual net inflows into U.S....

The market capitalization stands at approximately $51 trillion. Pinpointing exact figures poses challenges due to jurisdictional disputes regarding quoted companies. Many American companies might be r...

The pace of job growth in the US has started to accelerate rapidly. Job Growth Trends in the USIn December, 333,000 jobs were created, followed by another 353,000 in January 2024. This is well above...

The U.S. household savings rate continues to decline to historically low levels. The savings rate was 3.7% in December 2023, 4% in the last three months, 4.1% in the last six months, 12% for the enti...

Shares of New York Community Bancorp collapsed by a third, pulling all regional banks with a combined drop of more than 6 percent, the biggest one-day drop since March 13, 2023. Challenges in Loan Lo...

When estimating U.S. GDP, you have to factor in about $2 trillion in budget deficits, so it would be inappropriate to talk about "phenomenal sustainability." To be fair, it should be noted that the b...

The resilience of the U.S. economy is striking. GDP Growth in 4Q 2023GDP growth in 4Q 2023 was 3.3% quarter-on-quarter at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), following a very robust 4.9% gr...

The most successful companies in the United States have reached an all-time high market capitalization of $14.8 trillion as of January 25, 2024, representing a 15-fold increase since 2011. It's almos...

One of the key indicators in the context of business valuation is capitalization to free cash flow (P/FCF). Understanding Free Cash Flow (FCF)Free cash flow shows how much money remains in the busine...

Rising rates and the inflation storm had no impact on margins for U.S. companies. Hypothesis: Margin Impact of Rising CostsOne hypothesis for 2021 - 2022 was that frontal cost inflation at all levels...

The current slice of the market will tell you nothing about the degree of deviation from the norm without the unambiguous formalization and ordering of hindsight, which is why it is so important to in...

Retail sales in the United States are demonstrating impressive resilience, continuing to grow despite various limiting factors. December Retail Sales GrowthIn December, nominal retail sales rose 5.6%...

The SOFR rate is fundamental to the U.S. financial system and is used, among other things, to settle trillions of dollars of margin positions in derivatives and swap transactions. It also plays a role...

The United States federal budget deficit is nearing a historic high, even in the absence of a budget agreement. December Budget Deficit The budget deficit in December was 129.3 billion (the second...

US inflation rose by 0.3% month-over-month (0.31% for core inflation), which is consistent with the average annual trend. Historical ContextBetween 2015 and 2019, typical monthly price increases were...

U.S. companies are gradually recovering their investment activity, but the investment expansion phase from 2012 to 2016 still seems a long way off.Investment Activity TrendsOver the past 12 months, th...

The debt of the largest public non-financial companies in the U.S. stands at $7.66 trillion, having increased by $2.18 trillion over 5 years. Over 10 years, the debt has grown by $4.35 trillion, accor...

As of December 26, 2023, the market capitalization stands at $48.4 trillion, marking a year-over-year increase of 23.8%, which translates to $9.3 trillion. This figure encompasses the entire broad mar...

The U.S. household savings rate in November 2023 was expected to be close to a historic low of 4.1%. Impact of Interest CostsIt's worth noting that interest costs have a negative impact. For example,...

What is preventing a real estate market crisis in the U.S., even as new mortgages come with exceptionally stringent terms and interest rates reach their highest levels in 25 years? The Impact of Low-...

The United States is experiencing deflation for the first time since the crisis in April 2020, according to the PCE price index based on BEA data through November 2023. Monthly Changes in PricesThe P...

Assessing the potential of AI adoption may seem like humans are no longer needed, but in the last two years, nearly 8 million jobs have been created in the U.S., and the job gap is estimated at nearly...

It is interesting to follow the market's developments. The U.S. market has reached an all-time high, with 10-year bond rates falling below 4% after peaking at 5% in late October.Bond Market DynamicsIn...

The lack of a budget agreement in the US is not stopping the US Treasury Department from spending at an unrestricted pace - spending for October totaled $589bn, up 18%, nearly 25% YoY in two years, an...

The COVID crisis in 2020, the inflation surge in 2022, and the partially realized debt crisis from 2022 - how did this continuous series of negative events impact US businesses? Non-Financial vs. Fin...

While US macroeconomic statistics, especially the GDP report, offer extensive detail, they lack the most crucial element - a focus on subjectivity. Aggregated macro indicators are valuable for evalua...

A dozen companies accounted for more than 80% of the increase in market capitalization of U.S. publicly traded companies. This leads us to question the validity of such significant growth.The Big Doze...

The recent six-month growth in U.S. nonfarm payroll employment has closely matched the trend observed from 2010 to 2019, which averaged 190 thousand jobs added per month. In comparison, one year ago,...

When looking for "zombie" companies in the US and their impact on margins and market multiples, it becomes evident that the debt burden of companies has a compounding effect on their financial perform...

U.S. banks' interest income has doubled since the start of the QE (Quantitative Easing) tightening ($298 billion in 3Q 2023 vs. $139 billion in 2Q 2021) and is up 57% year-to-date through 2019. Int...

Competition for deposits is still growing, prompting U.S. banks to raise deposit rates more aggressively. The Impact of Outflow and Banking Panic in March 2023 The strongest outflow of deposits fr...

Total revenue for S&P 500 corporations has grown to $16.1 trillion on a cumulative basis over the past 12 months based on Q3 2023 data. Annualized growth has slowed continuously since 4Q21 (7 consecu...

The current market valuation of the S&P 500 (as of the morning of December 4) is as follows: P/S (Price-to-Sales) of 2.49, P/E (Price-to-Earnings) of 25.4, P/B (Price-to-Book) of 4.33, and a dividend...

There are no signs of a decline in US consumer demand yet - they continue to spend heavily. Consumer Spending TrendsConsumer spending (goods + services), as deflated by the official PCE measure, has...

Inflationary pressure in the United States is slowing, and more components are moving onto a disinflationary trajectory. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is the price index that serves as the...

The world's leading investment banks have raised their forecasts for global and U.S. economic growth for the next year in their annual reviews. They consider the probability of a recession to be minim...

The financial asset structure of U.S. households plays an important role in explaining the high level of wealth in society. Today, we will take a detailed look at this structure and its changes over s...

In the United States, household participation in the stock market is now at an all-time high, with 58% of all households owning stocks directly or indirectly. This is higher than the 51% average seen...

The $115 trillion in financial assets and $64 trillion in liquid assets held by U.S. households is an incredible amount of assets that is difficult to properly account for from an allocation perspecti...

A month ago, the U.S. market was in a state of turmoil. Now analysts are raising earnings forecasts, and options on the S&P 500 Index in the 4800 - 4900 range are gaining popularity. Optimism on the...

Profits of U.S. companies in the S&P 500 index were more resilient than previously thought, given the pace at which the Fed is tightening its QE program. Key Takeaways from the US Reporting SeasonWha...

The crisis in the U.S. real estate market is escalating - sales in the secondary real estate market are hitting 40-year lows, and historic lows in terms of population. Sales StatisticsAs of September...

Since October 27, the U.S. market has risen by 10.6%, reaching a capitalization of $45.7 trillion.Market PerformanceIn 19 trading days, excluding the momentum after April 2020, the strongest increases...

Who influences the progress of the U.S. economy and who creates and develops science and technology? Income DisparitiesIn mid-2022, the U.S. had 1.4 million scientists engaged in basic, applied, and...

The average salary level of a highly qualified engineer/IT specialist/scientist/architect of computer systems in leading US corporations is $150,000 - $200,000 per year of accrued pre-tax income (base...

Corporate lending directly reflects business cycles and is strongly linked to investment activity. Historical Patterns of Lending and Economic Crises Historically, whenever lending to non-financie...

Dollar lending rate levels are at the ceiling - how does this affect lending activity?Growth Trends Mortgage credit to individuals via bank lending represents only 20% of all mortgage debt, so this...

US retail sales declined by 0.1% month-on-month (m/m) after 6 months of fairly strong recovery. Retail sales decreased by 0.3% month-on-month (mom). StatisticsReal growth averaged 4.4% from Dec 10 -...

US inflation has slowed to 3.2% year-on-year (y/y), and core inflation has also decreased to 4% y/y. These are the lowest rates since March 2021 for the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) and since Au...

The U.S. state budget continues to increase, reaching $470 billion in spending through October 2023, compared to $406 billion in 2022 and $380 billion in October 2019. From January through October 202...

The USA is a post-industrial society with a pronounced shift in priority towards information technology (infotech), financial technology (fintech), biotechnology (biotech), and scientific research. A...

Corporate bankruptcies in the United States are at their highest level since 2010, but they mainly concern small and medium-sized businesses. The wave of bankruptcies has not yet reached corporations...

The downward trend in US household incomes may continue, potentially jeopardizing spending and leading to a recession in the next 3-6 months. Savings and ResourcesThe savings rate is near historic lo...

The U.S. labor market is currently stable, although there is a declining trend in job gains. Job Trends and RecoveryAs of early November 2023, the number of U.S. jobs is 4.5 million higher (+3%) than...

The official U.S. Treasury Department fixed the rate cap at 4.95% for 10-year treasuries on October 25, 2023. On October 23, the "5% barrier" was broken, but it failed to gain a foothold. The focus on...

The United States is extremely dependent on foreign capital inflows – at least $220 billion in net foreign capital inflows per quarter is required to keep the currency and financial system functioning...

The U.S. market has weakened. The capitalization of all publicly traded U.S. companies is valued at $41.4 trillion, which is up 5.7% from the last trading day in 2022. At its peak in July 2023, U.S. m...

To what extent is inflation in the US higher than normal? Is inflation stabilizing and what are the current trends? Price Indexes and Their Role in GDPPrice indexes in the U.S. GDP structure are very...

Once again, there has been a major revision of US statistics, dating back to 1947. This revision could have been anticipated due to significant changes in data regarding the income and expenditures o...

The US economy is demonstrating remarkable sustainability. GDP growth in Q3 2023 is projected to reach 4.9% according to the SAAR methodology (seasonally adjusted annualized rate). GDP Growth Project...

The basic hypothesis is as follows: in the long run, there are no more profitable financial instruments (in a comparable comparison) than assets issued in the dollar financial system. Comparative Ana...

The debt structure in the US is quite substantial, with $26 trillion in market debt across various types of treasuries. Impact on Various Bond MarketsNow, the rates on medium and long-term treasuries...

What are the priorities and areas of spending of the US federal government? Interestingly, before the hot phase of the Ukrainian crisis began in 2022, the share of spending on national defense (11.1%...

Interest expenses are a significant burden on the U.S. budget, accounting for over 10% of all budget expenditures. Many people misinterpret the data published in the media regarding the $1 trillion...

A significant revision of macroeconomic statistics at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) resulted in a loss of $2.6 trillion in national savings in the US. Revision DetailsHistorical data series d...

The sustainability resource of the system is limited and was set to expire at the beginning of Q4 2023, which could trigger destructive macroeconomic processes in the US. Impact on Low and Middle-Inc...

Although BEA has revised the statistics, delaying the onset of the crisis by 6-9 months, this clever statistical maneuver does not take into account debt fragmentation. Overview of the Current Econom...

The significant revision of statistics in the US is of great importance. It essentially involves creating an alternative perspective on reality through substantial changes in the conclusions drawn. D...

The Significance of Global Capital AllocationWho controls the concentration of global capital? From 2010 to 2023, nearly half of the world's net capital allocation was centered in the United States, a...

The reporting season in the USA has concluded, and it's time to assess the situation. The results are weak, indicating the potential approach of a recession, despite the persistently unrealistic optim...

Has the United States effectively regulated inflation? In the last year, inflation in the U.S. stood at 4.7%, while core inflation was at 3.3%. Over the past 6 months, inflation has been at an annuali...

The US market has experienced a 28% increase over the span of 10 months (from early October 2022 to July 2023), with a limited correction in August. However, the question remains: is a collapse likely...