The significant revision of statistics in the US is of great importance. It essentially involves creating an alternative perspective on reality through substantial changes in the conclusions drawn.
Data Revisions: A Comprehensive Overview
Virtually all aspects of macroeconomic statistics have undergone revisions, especially those related to household income, expenditures, and national savings, which directly constitute up to 70% of the US GDP.
These revisions have impacted data starting from Q2 1979, with more noticeable revisions occurring from 1981 onwards. Considerable disparities in data began to accumulate from 2013 onwards. There was a notable underestimation of the comparative baseline for retrospective data, with a correction of up to 1.5%, along with a significant upward revision of current data.
After the revision, there were significant changes in the data. The 2019 baseline was underestimated by an average of 1.5%, while the 2023 baseline was overestimated by more than 1.5%. As a result, the data revision alone, which involves accounting and number manipulation, had a positive impact of more than 3%.
Consequently, U.S. household income in real terms is now 3.5% higher when comparing the beginning of 3Q 2023 with February 2020, whereas the old data indicated a figure close to zero.
Key Factors Driving Data Revisions
The key reasons behind the revised data are as follows:
- Income from financial assets had a negative contribution of 73% for 2019 in the data revision structure.
- Income from tangible assets, primarily rental housing, contributed negatively by about 6%.
- Business activities had a negative contribution of about 20%.
- Salaries and income from government sources remained unchanged.
For 2023, on the other hand, income from financial assets made a positive contribution of 40%, and income from tangible assets contributed positively by 35%. Additionally, there were revisions to budget statistics, including taxes.
Conclusion
This comprehensive revision encompasses virtually all aspects of macroeconomic statistics, with a particular focus on household income, expenditures, and national savings, which together constitute a substantial portion, up to 70%, of the U.S. GDP.
The impact of these revisions spans from Q2 1979, with more pronounced changes emerging from 1981 onward. Notably, disparities in data began accumulating significantly from 2013 onward. This process involved both a notable underestimation of the comparative baseline for retrospective data, with a correction of up to 1.5%, and a significant upward revision of current data.
Following the revision, there were substantial shifts in the data. The 2019 baseline was underestimated by an average of 1.5%, while the 2023 baseline was overestimated by more than 1.5%. The data revision, which involves various accounting and numerical adjustments, had a notable positive impact of over 3%.
Consequently, U.S. household income in real terms now stands 3.5% higher when comparing the beginning of 3Q 2023 with February 2020, a stark contrast to the prior understanding of nearly zero change.