Spydell

Spydell Analytics

Spydell is a nickname of an independent financial analyst who specializes in the following analytics areas:

• Market Information;

• Government Bonds from Major Countries;

• Money Market and Central Bank Rates;

• Sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) from Leading Countries;

• Exchange Rate Comparisons;

• Stock Index Comparisons;

• Comparison of Commodity Assets;

• Asset Spreads and Ratios;

• Cross-Country Comparisons of Bonds and CDS.

Role: Financial expert
Publications: 103

Articles

Weak US Retail Sales Data Highlights Stagnation

It doesn't matter how much the data diverges from the forecast because forecasts can be highly manipulative. Let's get straight to the actual data!Long-Term Retail Sales TrendsRetail sales grew by onl...

Updated: 09-19-2024 380
Recent Market Volatility and Historical Comparisons

The U.S. market experienced a 3% decline — the largest single-day drop since September 13, 2022. Over two days, the market fell 4.8%, a decline only surpassed by the 6.7% drop on June 13, 2023, and th...

Updated: 08-06-2024 349
Rising Debt Accumulation Among U.S. Companies

U.S. companies are starting to accumulate debt again. Total marketable debt (bonds + loans of all types) of leading U.S. non-financial companies rose to $7.6 trillion as of Q1 2024, up from $7 trilli...

Updated: 06-17-2024 688
Impact of Unrealized Losses on Dollar Bondholders

Accumulated losses of dollar bondholders have exceeded $4.1 trillion. These calculations include all dollar bonds issued within the U.S. financial system by U.S. residents, with the difference betwee...

Updated: 06-10-2024 730
US Government Debt Strategy

The main question for the next six months is whether the placement of over 1 trillion in government bonds over two years will succeed or fail. This is not as trivial as it seems. Since June 2023, the...

Updated: 05-08-2024 419
Overview of US Inflation Acceleration

US inflation is accelerating at almost twice the normal rate. Analysis of GDP Deflator TrendsThe elevated inflationary backdrop is now reflected directly in the GDP deflator: the increase in the GDP...

Updated: 04-26-2024 483
US Inflation Rising: Detailed Review of Key Indicators

US inflation rose by 0.38% month-over-month (MoM), year-to-date (YTD) for the three months to 0.38%, up from 0.26% in the six months prior. This is well above the medium-term trend, with average month...

Updated: 04-11-2024 492
Challenges Facing the U.S. Banking System

The safety margin of the U.S. banking system is not as large as it may seem. The Rise in Delinquencies and Charge-offsThe rise in delinquencies and charge-offs is associated with extreme growth in lo...

Updated: 03-19-2024 352
The Dynamics of U.S. Market Growth

One of the main drivers of U.S. market growth in Q4 2023 was corporate stock buybacks. Record-breaking Trends in 2023 and BeyondThe U.S. market is up 35% in 2023, the highest gain since 1997, and Nov...

Updated: 03-15-2024 388
Analysis of Bank Credit Trends in the United States

Since the beginning of 2024 (first 1.5 months to Feb 14 inclusive), there has been a decrease of $70 billion or 0.6% compared to December 2023. Total Bank Credit GrowthFor 2023, total bank credit in...

Updated: 02-27-2024 324
The Acceleration of Job Growth in the US

The pace of job growth in the US has started to accelerate rapidly. Job Growth Trends in the USIn December, 333,000 jobs were created, followed by another 353,000 in January 2024. This is well above...

Updated: 02-05-2024 340
New York Community Bank's Problems

Shares of New York Community Bancorp collapsed by a third, pulling all regional banks with a combined drop of more than 6 percent, the biggest one-day drop since March 13, 2023. Challenges in Loan Lo...

Updated: 02-01-2024 478
Analyzing U.S. GDP and Economic Trends

When estimating U.S. GDP, you have to factor in about $2 trillion in budget deficits, so it would be inappropriate to talk about "phenomenal sustainability." To be fair, it should be noted that the b...

Updated: 01-29-2024 419
Record Market Capitalization

The most successful companies in the United States have reached an all-time high market capitalization of $14.8 trillion as of January 25, 2024, representing a 15-fold increase since 2011. It's almos...

Updated: 01-26-2024 327
Interpreting Long Historical Series for Market Insights

The current slice of the market will tell you nothing about the degree of deviation from the norm without the unambiguous formalization and ordering of hindsight, which is why it is so important to in...

Updated: 01-22-2024 342
U.S. Federal Budget Deficit

The United States federal budget deficit is nearing a historic high, even in the absence of a budget agreement. December Budget Deficit The budget deficit in December was 129.3 billion (the second...

Updated: 01-15-2024 352
Understanding US Inflation Trends

US inflation rose by 0.3% month-over-month (0.31% for core inflation), which is consistent with the average annual trend. Historical ContextBetween 2015 and 2019, typical monthly price increases were...

Updated: 01-12-2024 333
December 2023 Market Insights Overview

As of December 26, 2023, the market capitalization stands at $48.4 trillion, marking a year-over-year increase of 23.8%, which translates to $9.3 trillion. This figure encompasses the entire broad mar...

Updated: 12-27-2023 616
U.S. Household Savings Rate Info

The U.S. household savings rate in November 2023 was expected to be close to a historic low of 4.1%. Impact of Interest CostsIt's worth noting that interest costs have a negative impact. For example,...

Updated: 12-27-2023 362
AI Adoption and Its Impact on the Economy

Assessing the potential of AI adoption may seem like humans are no longer needed, but in the last two years, nearly 8 million jobs have been created in the U.S., and the job gap is estimated at nearly...

Updated: 12-19-2023 306
Market Transformations and Economic Dynamics

It is interesting to follow the market's developments. The U.S. market has reached an all-time high, with 10-year bond rates falling below 4% after peaking at 5% in late October.Bond Market DynamicsIn...

Updated: 12-15-2023 732
The Budget Impasse Leads to Record Deficits

The lack of a budget agreement in the US is not stopping the US Treasury Department from spending at an unrestricted pace - spending for October totaled $589bn, up 18%, nearly 25% YoY in two years, an...

Updated: 12-14-2023 659
US Business Resilience Amidst Continuous Challenges

The COVID crisis in 2020, the inflation surge in 2022, and the partially realized debt crisis from 2022 - how did this continuous series of negative events impact US businesses? Non-Financial vs. Fin...

Updated: 12-13-2023 397
Market Dominance

A dozen companies accounted for more than 80% of the increase in market capitalization of U.S. publicly traded companies. This leads us to question the validity of such significant growth.The Big Doze...

Updated: 12-12-2023 328
U.S. Banks' Financial Trends and Interest Income

U.S. banks' interest income has doubled since the start of the QE (Quantitative Easing) tightening ($298 billion in 3Q 2023 vs. $139 billion in 2Q 2021) and is up 57% year-to-date through 2019. Int...

Updated: 12-05-2023 732
Market Valuations

The current market valuation of the S&P 500 (as of the morning of December 4) is as follows: P/S (Price-to-Sales) of 2.49, P/E (Price-to-Earnings) of 25.4, P/B (Price-to-Book) of 4.33, and a dividend...

Updated: 12-04-2023 310
Assessing US Consumer Demand and Income Trends

There are no signs of a decline in US consumer demand yet - they continue to spend heavily. Consumer Spending TrendsConsumer spending (goods + services), as deflated by the official PCE measure, has...

Updated: 12-01-2023 771
Inflation dynamics in the USA

Inflationary pressure in the United States is slowing, and more components are moving onto a disinflationary trajectory. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is the price index that serves as the...

Updated: 12-01-2023 348
Market Outlook: From Turmoil to Optimism

A month ago, the U.S. market was in a state of turmoil. Now analysts are raising earnings forecasts, and options on the S&P 500 Index in the 4800 - 4900 range are gaining popularity. Optimism on the...

Updated: 11-24-2023 358
US Corporate Earnings Report

Profits of U.S. companies in the S&P 500 index were more resilient than previously thought, given the pace at which the Fed is tightening its QE program. Key Takeaways from the US Reporting SeasonWha...

Updated: 11-24-2023 314
Escalating Crisis in the U.S. Real Estate Market

The crisis in the U.S. real estate market is escalating - sales in the secondary real estate market are hitting 40-year lows, and historic lows in terms of population. Sales StatisticsAs of September...

Updated: 11-23-2023 482
U.S. Market Insights Since October 2023

Since October 27, the U.S. market has risen by 10.6%, reaching a capitalization of $45.7 trillion.Market PerformanceIn 19 trading days, excluding the momentum after April 2020, the strongest increases...

Updated: 11-23-2023 326
Influencers of the U.S. Economy and Their Income

Who influences the progress of the U.S. economy and who creates and develops science and technology? Income DisparitiesIn mid-2022, the U.S. had 1.4 million scientists engaged in basic, applied, and...

Updated: 11-21-2023 335
High-Tech Professional Compensation Insights

The average salary level of a highly qualified engineer/IT specialist/scientist/architect of computer systems in leading US corporations is $150,000 - $200,000 per year of accrued pre-tax income (base...

Updated: 11-21-2023 362
Corporate Lending Trends

Corporate lending directly reflects business cycles and is strongly linked to investment activity. Historical Patterns of Lending and Economic Crises Historically, whenever lending to non-financie...

Updated: 11-20-2023 366
Analysis of Dollar Lending Rates and Lending Activity

Dollar lending rate levels are at the ceiling - how does this affect lending activity?Growth Trends Mortgage credit to individuals via bank lending represents only 20% of all mortgage debt, so this...

Updated: 11-20-2023 319
Retail Sales and Industrial Production Trends

US retail sales declined by 0.1% month-on-month (m/m) after 6 months of fairly strong recovery. Retail sales decreased by 0.3% month-on-month (mom). StatisticsReal growth averaged 4.4% from Dec 10 -...

Updated: 11-17-2023 487
US Inflation Trends and Insights

US inflation has slowed to 3.2% year-on-year (y/y), and core inflation has also decreased to 4% y/y. These are the lowest rates since March 2021 for the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) and since Au...

Updated: 11-15-2023 393
Budget Trends and Analysis for 2023

The U.S. state budget continues to increase, reaching $470 billion in spending through October 2023, compared to $406 billion in 2022 and $380 billion in October 2019. From January through October 202...

Updated: 11-15-2023 395
US Corporate and Household Debt Dynamics

Corporate bankruptcies in the United States are at their highest level since 2010, but they mainly concern small and medium-sized businesses. The wave of bankruptcies has not yet reached corporations...

Updated: 11-08-2023 321
Analysis of the US Labor Market in November 2023

The U.S. labor market is currently stable, although there is a declining trend in job gains. Job Trends and RecoveryAs of early November 2023, the number of U.S. jobs is 4.5 million higher (+3%) than...

Updated: 11-06-2023 908
U.S. Household Income and Economic Prospects in 2023

The downward trend in US household incomes may continue, potentially jeopardizing spending and leading to a recession in the next 3-6 months. Savings and ResourcesThe savings rate is near historic lo...

Updated: 11-06-2023 559
Key Insights from the Fed's Press Conference

The official U.S. Treasury Department fixed the rate cap at 4.95% for 10-year treasuries on October 25, 2023. On October 23, the "5% barrier" was broken, but it failed to gain a foothold. The focus on...

Updated: 11-03-2023 368
U.S. Dependence on Foreign Capital Inflows

The United States is extremely dependent on foreign capital inflows – at least $220 billion in net foreign capital inflows per quarter is required to keep the currency and financial system functioning...

Updated: 11-01-2023 334
Market Analysis and its Trends

The U.S. market has weakened. The capitalization of all publicly traded U.S. companies is valued at $41.4 trillion, which is up 5.7% from the last trading day in 2022. At its peak in July 2023, U.S. m...

Updated: 10-31-2023 338
Analyzing the Trends of Inflation in the United States

To what extent is inflation in the US higher than normal? Is inflation stabilizing and what are the current trends? Price Indexes and Their Role in GDPPrice indexes in the U.S. GDP structure are very...

Updated: 10-30-2023 388
Revising US Economic Statistics in 2023

Once again, there has been a major revision of US statistics, dating back to 1947. This revision could have been anticipated due to significant changes in data regarding the income and expenditures o...

Updated: 10-30-2023 439
The Resilient US Economy in Q3 2023

The US economy is demonstrating remarkable sustainability. GDP growth in Q3 2023 is projected to reach 4.9% according to the SAAR methodology (seasonally adjusted annualized rate). GDP Growth Project...

Updated: 10-30-2023 481
The Dominance of the Dollar

The basic hypothesis is as follows: in the long run, there are no more profitable financial instruments (in a comparable comparison) than assets issued in the dollar financial system. Comparative Ana...

Updated: 10-26-2023 427
Analyzing U.S. Interest Expenses and National Debt

Interest expenses are a significant burden on the U.S. budget, accounting for over 10% of all budget expenditures. Many people misinterpret the data published in the media regarding the $1 trillion...

Updated: 10-23-2023 503
Major Revisions in US National Savings Data

A significant revision of macroeconomic statistics at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) resulted in a loss of $2.6 trillion in national savings in the US. Revision DetailsHistorical data series d...

Updated: 10-23-2023 1033
Assessing Macroeconomic Sustainability

The sustainability resource of the system is limited and was set to expire at the beginning of Q4 2023, which could trigger destructive macroeconomic processes in the US. Impact on Low and Middle-Inc...

Updated: 10-23-2023 826
Significant Revisions in U.S. Economic Statistics

The significant revision of statistics in the US is of great importance. It essentially involves creating an alternative perspective on reality through substantial changes in the conclusions drawn. D...

Updated: 10-23-2023 330
Assessing U.S. Inflation Control Efforts

Has the United States effectively regulated inflation? In the last year, inflation in the U.S. stood at 4.7%, while core inflation was at 3.3%. Over the past 6 months, inflation has been at an annuali...

Updated: 08-24-2023 503