The crisis in the U.S. real estate market is escalating - sales in the secondary real estate market are hitting 40-year lows, and historic lows in terms of population.
Sales Statistics
As of September 2023, there were 3.79 million homes sold on an annualized basis - the lowest level since 2010 when the tax credits were repealed, 35 - 40% below the average sales from 3Q 2020 - 4Q 2021, and 30% below sales from 2017 - 2019.
Adjusted for per capita sales, current secondary real estate market activity is 55% below the 2005 - 2006 peak and is the lowest ever recorded.
New home/primary real estate construction is 25% below the peak in 2021 and 35% below the pre-recession peak in 2006, although it's still 15% above the 2017 - 2019 average due to fairly low market supply mitigating the impact of the recession.
According to Zillow (the most timely indicator of real estate prices), real estate values rose for the seventh consecutive month, which allowed compensation for the fall in prices in the second half of 2022 and entry into a positive annual trend (+1.8% year-over-year).
The weighted average price of a residential property is almost $350k (a historic high), which is 40 - 42% above the level before the COVID crisis.
Conclusion
The situation is absurd - prices are rising while sales are falling, primarily due to inflationary processes (real estate as an opportunity to preserve savings from depreciation), shifting demand towards expensive real estate (which increases the average price index) because of the activity of affluent buyers and a relatively low supply volume (an accumulated effect of low construction volume over the last 15 years).
Adjusted for inflation, current prices are only 2-3% above the 2006 peak and 68% higher in real terms.