The market capitalization stands at approximately $51 trillion. Pinpointing exact figures poses challenges due to jurisdictional disputes regarding quoted companies. Many American companies might be registered in alternative jurisdictions, including offshore locations.
Market Capitalization Overview
- From October 27, 2023, until February 7, 2024, there has been an unprecedented surge in capitalization, with an absolute increase of 9 trillion, marking the most substantial growth recorded within 103 days in market history.
- The record was 8.8 trillion as of June 30, 2020, for the comparable comparison period (post-crisis recovery from the March 2020 lows);
- The peak of the 2009 - 2010 post-crisis recovery was only 2.4 trillion.
- In relative comparison from the intraday high on February 7, 2024, to the low on October 27, 2023, this is record growth.
- Since 1950, a larger increase was only in 1963, a 23.5% seasonally adjusted increase, i.e., from October 27 of the previous year to February 7 of the reporting year.
- There has been nothing like this in the 21st century, with the best result in 2021 at 14.9% on the back of the cash frenzy, the introduction of vaccinations in December 2020, and the opening of the world economy after the lockout in early 2021.
- Excluding the current year, the average result from 1950 through 2023 is 6.5% over the comparable period, 6% over the last 30 years, 5.4% over 20 years, and 5.5% over 10 years.
- A 21.8% capitalization gain over 69 trading days and 103 calendar days is a very rare event.
Historical Perspective
Has something like this happened before when evaluated on a rolling comparison basis? Yes, of course, but there are nuances here. There have been 9 episodes in the last 30 years when the market growth rate was higher than it is now in 103 days:
- 42% market recovery by June 2020;
- April 2019 - 23.3%;
- June 2009 - 40%;
- June 2003 - 28.2%;
- December 2001 - 22.9%;
- January 1999 - 36%;
- April 1998 - 24.9%;
- July 1997 - 27.4%.
Conclusion
However, the notable aspect is that typically, such rapid market recoveries follow significant downturns preceding the market's resurgence.
The only outliers to this trend are the rallies of April 1998 and July 1997, which occurred without a preceding "lifting off the lows" from a low base. In 2023, the record-breaking rally commenced after a correction of 11% from the local highs, meaning it began from a relatively high base.