Analysis of Debt Trends in the Largest Public Non-Financial U.S. Companies

Analysis of Debt Trends in the Largest Public Non-Financial U.S. Companies

The debt of the largest public non-financial companies in the U.S. stands at $7.66 trillion, having increased by $2.18 trillion over 5 years. Over 10 years, the debt has grown by $4.35 trillion, according to their calculations based on corporate reports.

Debt refers to both short-term and long-term debt on loans and bonds of various maturities and types.

Sector Concentration

Out of the total debt of $7.66 trillion, nearly a third is concentrated in just three sectors: utilities at 12.1% ($924 billion), consumer services at 10.6% ($814 billion), and retail trade at 8.9% ($683 billion).

Only six sectors contributed significantly to debt growth over the past decade. The consumer services sectors led the way, accounting for 13.1% of the total $4.35 trillion in debt growth, followed by utilities at 11.9%, retail trade at 11.2%, technology at 10.1%, and medical technology at 9.1%. Together, these six sectors accounted for 63.3% of the total debt growth of $2.75 trillion over the past ten years.

Together, these six sectors have collectively represented 63.3% of the total debt growth, amounting to $2.75 trillion over the past ten years.

Commodity companies have contributed almost no debt growth, with 2.4% for oil and gas and only 0.1% for metals and chemicals (non-commodity minerals).

Debt-to-Revenue Ratio Analysis

When examining the debt-to-revenue ratio across all companies, it stands at 43.9% (average debt over the last 12 months as a percentage of total 12-month revenue), slightly below the 2017 - 2019 average of 46%.

At first glance, everything may be fine, and the debt burden is stable. However, a superficial analysis won't address the question of structural imbalances. For instance, before the 2008 crisis, the debt-to-income ratio was 30.6%, which is 1.5 times lower than it is now.

The increase in the debt burden in 2009 - 2010 and 2020 - 2021 is primarily due to income declines during crises. Here, it's more appropriate to assess normalized values, which were at 30 - 33% 10-15 years ago and have risen to 44 - 47% at present.

A more comprehensive analysis will be presented in the future as the data is compiled, but a noticeable pattern of mounting debt burdens over the last decade is evident in the following sectors: utilities, commercial services, medical technology, communications, retail, and consumer durables.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the largest U.S. non-financial companies have a significant debt load of $7.66 trillion, with significant increases over the past five and ten years. While the debt-to-income ratio seems stable at 43.9%, historical data suggest possible structural imbalances. Notably, some sectors, such as utilities and consumer services, have seen a marked increase in debt burden over the past decade. These data underscore the importance of ongoing monitoring to ensure the stability of these sectors and the corporate landscape as a whole.

Table of contents
  1. Sector Concentration
  2. Debt-to-Revenue Ratio Analysis
  3. Conclusion