Debt overload is not currently a focal point for the global community, despite the ongoing growth of issues as debts are refinanced.
This process cannot be expedited due to the debt structure. However, each month of high-interest rates consumes hundreds of billions of income for economic agents to service the debt.
Extended Impact: Medium and Long-Term Debt Refinancing
The increase in delinquencies and charge-offs at U.S. banks carries symbolic significance in some respects.
This isn't merely a one-year problem, as medium-term (3 - 5 years) and long-term debts (7 years and beyond) are refinanced during periods of high rates, effectively binding borrowers to extended periods of servicing expensive debts, barring liabilities with floating rates.
Growth of weighted average rates
It's worth noting that the growth of weighted average rates on medium-term and long-term debts is less pronounced compared to short-term debts. Using dollar rates as a benchmark, the middle and far end of the yield curve have increased in price by an average of 2-3 percentage points relative to the March 2022 level before the tightening cycle commenced, whereas debt maturing within one year has seen a price increase of 4-6 percentage points depending on the bond type.
Yet, even a 2 - 3 percentage point increase in rates on high-quality bonds imposes a significant burden within the debt framework.
Record Levels of Debt-to-Capital Ratios
In countries sensitive to tightening Debt-to-Capital Ratios (DCPs), debt burdens have reached record levels: 254% in the US, 236% in the Eurozone, 232% in the UK, 218% in Australia, and 306% of GDP for the non-financial sector (comprising households, non-financial companies, and government) in Canada.
Only a few companies within the successful technology sector operate with negative net debt and prohibitive profitability. Meanwhile, the broader economy experiences shrinking profitability amid rising costs, including the expense of servicing debt.
Conclusion
Overall, despite growing debt problems, the global focus is not on debt overload. High interest rates are burdening debt service, and rising delinquencies point to more serious problems. Debt-to-GDP ratios around the world are at record highs, undermining profitability. Active measures are needed at all levels to address these challenges.