A significant revision of macroeconomic statistics at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) resulted in a loss of $2.6 trillion in national savings in the US.
Revision Details
Historical data series dating back to 1981 were revised, and the most substantial discrepancies in data occurred between 2013 and 2021, accounting for nearly 80% of the revision.
Under the new data, savings rates were lower before 2023 and higher from 2023 onwards. According to the updated data, the savings rate in 2019 was 7.4% (previously reported as 8.8% before the revision), and the average savings rate from 2013 to 2019 was 5.6% (previously reported as 7.1%).
Pre-Revision vs. Post-Revision Savings Rates
In terms of actual savings, the revised 2019 savings amounted to $1.19 trillion per year, down from the previously reported $1.44 trillion. From 2013 through 2018, accumulated savings were adjusted to $4.7 trillion, while they were initially reported as nearly $6 trillion.
During the active accumulation period from 2020 to 2021, the savings rate was revised to 13.2% or $4.8 trillion, as opposed to the previously reported 14.3% or $5.23 trillion.
In 2022, the average savings rate was revised to 3.3% ($568 billion for the year), down from the previously reported 3.6% ($658 billion). Conversely, in 2023, at least for the first half of the year, the savings rate was adjusted upward to 5% ($497 billion for 1H 2023), while the previous data indicated a savings rate of 4.4% or $427 billion.
The BEA has not provided any further comments on these revisions. These changes have implications for previous conclusions and may distort the perception of economic statistics.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the significant revision of macroeconomic statistics at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has had a significant impact on our understanding of the U.S. economy. This revision resulted in a staggering loss of $2.6 trillion in national savings, which underscores the importance of accurate economic data in shaping our economic policy and decision-making.
The revisions affected historical data series dating back to 1981, with the most significant adjustments occurring between 2013 and 2021, accounting for nearly 80 percent of the total revision. These adjustments resulted in changes in savings rates and actual savings rates across years.