Interpreting Long Historical Series for Market Insights

Interpreting Long Historical Series for Market Insights

The current slice of the market will tell you nothing about the degree of deviation from the norm without the unambiguous formalization and ordering of hindsight, which is why it is so important to interpret long historical series.

Downloading corporate data, such as macroeconomic statistics, isn't as simple as clicking a download button. This data is not publicly available and requires months of effort by large corporations to compile and provide access to it.

Market Valuation Analysis

By the calculations, the P/OCF, sometimes called P/CFO, for the entire market as of January 22, 2024, is 16.1 versus 13.5 in 2017 - 2019 (now 19% more expensive), 10.8 in 2012 - 2016 (1.5 times more expensive) and 11.3 in 2004 - 2007 (1.42 times more expensive).

Excluding technology companies, the current valuation is 12.9 versus 12.8 in 2017 - 2019, 10.7 in 2012 - 2016, and 10.7 in 2004 - 2007.

Market Norms and Risks

In terms of margins and efficiency for U.S. companies, current valuations beyond "those plus minus" are in line with the norm (in a zero rate environment), but there is no discounting of potential risks and no valuation adjustment in alternative financial instruments (money and debt markets).

The commodities sector is near historic lows, and chemicals and non-commodity metals are in protracted stagnation, as are manufacturing consumer services and healthcare.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it requires more than just a snapshot of the present to gain a full understanding of the current state of the market. The true degree of deviation from the norm becomes apparent only with careful formalization and systematic analysis of historical data.

Table of contents
  1. Market Valuation Analysis
  2. Market Norms and Risks
  3. Conclusion