While US macroeconomic statistics, especially the GDP report, offer extensive detail, they lack the most crucial element - a focus on subjectivity.
Aggregated macro indicators are valuable for evaluating trends but provide no insight into the potential for trend disruptions or the underlying reasons for phase transitions.
Predicting Economic Crises
In the entire history of macroeconomic forecasts by leading agencies (international institutions, investment banks, national economic institutions), not a single crisis has been convincingly predicted based on macroanalysis. As a rule, it always turns out to be in the past, and the justification follows ex post facto.
Beyond Bias and Data Delays
It is not just about bias, incompetence, failure of economic models, or a political component (e.g., banning unfavorable forecasts). It is also about the nature of the data since we are discussing delayed data on the actual occurrence of negative processes.
However, the presence of structural imbalances alone does not guarantee the onset of a crisis because it is possible to exist in a state of structural deviations for an extended period.
Timing Crisis Response
It is generally accepted that it takes about six months of consistently bad data to start worrying. However, the moment of crisis response often means a significant escalation of negative processes - akin to trying to put out a fire after realizing that the house has already burned down.
We need faster leading indicators, but here too we are in for a surprise. It turns out that almost all leading indicators, including surveys of enterprises and households for more than 1.5 years, point to the inevitability of not just a recession, but rather are talking about entering a crisis (a record series of continuous nightmare data is being formed).
Therefore, a different approach is needed. What is the problem with the lack of subjectivity in macro-level aggregates? Such analysis is fundamentally incapable of accounting for weak links in the chain and explosive elements, and this is where the problems arise.
Conclusion
Increases or decreases in investment occur in response to economic, social, geopolitical, technological, and intra-corporate causes. There are many factors, but macro analysis cannot identify the cause of the trend - a more complex and in-depth analysis is required.