Industrial production in the US shows no signs of revival.
There is no point in recounting the extremely noisy monthly data as it shifts the focus of attention from medium-term trends to random short-term fluctuations, heavily distorted by seasonal coefficients.
Period of Interest
What period is of interest? March 2024 through March 2022, which, first, covers the entire period of tightening DCP in the dollar financial system, and second, takes into account the inflation crisis and debt shock of 2022, the phantom economic recovery in 2023, and allows us to test the "super resilient US economy" narrative.
Growth Analysis
In two years (March 2024 / March 2022), US industry grew 0.2%, and for Q1 2024 / Q1 2022, growth was 0.5% (further in this sequence). To be fair, there is no growth in either the 10-year plus 0.9% or the 16-year plus 1.2%, i.e., there are 15 - 17 years of stagnation on a high base, but with no signs of an uptrend forming, although there is no recession.
Sectoral Transformations
Within the framework of zero long-term changes in industry, we can note sectoral transformations (a shift of emphasis towards oil and gas and knowledge-intensive production).
The following industries have experienced two-year industry growth:
- Computers & Electronics - 5.4% (+5.4% for Q1)
- Automotive - 12.5% (+12.5%)
- Aerospace and other transportation (includes missiles and MIC products) - 11.6% (+12.6%)
- Oil refining - 3.5% (+1.8%)
- Chemistry and petrochemicals - 2% (+1.5%)
- Extraction of minerals (entirely due to oil and gas) - 4.6% (+6.1%).
In the phase of the most rapid contraction:
- Furniture, fittings, home and garden products - 15.1% (-14.8%)
- Textiles - 12.5% (-12.9%)
- Apparel and Footwear - 10.8% (-8%), the trend of shrinking production has been going on for 30 years, and in 16 years, the decline has been almost 60%
- Paper production - 9.1% (9%)
- Woodworking - 6.9% (7.1%)
- Construction materials (sand, crushed stone, concrete, glass, etc.) - 5.5% (3.6%)
- Machine building - 5.1% (4.8%)
- Metallurgy - 2.9% (2.9%).
Conclusion
In conclusion, the assessment of industrial production trends in the US indicates a stagnant situation with no signs of revitalization. There has been minimal growth from March 2024 to March 2022, with the tightening of the DCP in the dollar financial system, indicating a prolonged period of stagnation. Sectoral transformation, especially towards oil and gas and knowledge-intensive manufacturing, is giving glimmers of adaptation in the industry. However, imbalances persist, with some industries, such as computer and electronic equipment and automobiles, experiencing growth and others, such as furniture and textiles, experiencing rapid contraction. Overall, the data underscore the challenges facing the U.S. manufacturing sector, which are exacerbated by continued difficulties in construction.