Assessing the potential of AI adoption may seem like humans are no longer needed, but in the last two years, nearly 8 million jobs have been created in the U.S., and the job gap is estimated at nearly 4 million.
At risk are:
- Transportation drivers (with the introduction of autopilots).
- Call center operators and customer service employees due to the emergence of highly sophisticated virtual consultants and assistants.
- Office clerks due to the optimization and automation of a significant number of business procedures.
- Accountants.
- Low- and medium-skilled workers in the medical and educational consulting segments.
- Workers in trade, agriculture, and industry due to the automation of processes, etc.
The Potential Impact of Generative AI
In theory, the implementation of generative AI will:
- Significantly accelerate technological progress through faster adoption of new developments and products.
- Create new markets and new industries directly or indirectly related to serving the AI industry.
- Automate many processes, increase productivity, and free up labor.
- Optimize business processes, improve the speed and quality of decision-making, and minimize errors.
- Optimize the supply chain, warehouses, and logistics, reduce downtime, excess inventory, or shortages, and improve overall efficiency.
All of this should significantly increase GDP growth, reduce inflation, increase the profitability and efficiency of businesses, and make people happy.
Challenges and Concerns
A good illustration is the introduction of automation in the industry in the early 20th century, where the spread of belt conveyors occurred from 1915 - 1980, and from the 1980s, the use of ACS, CAD, and highly integrated industrial complexes began, which peaked in 2004 - 2007 (in the last 15 - 20 years, there have been practically no significant innovations in industrial automation at the conveyor level).
On the other hand, there has been a new wave of robots, the integration of artificial intelligence, and the use of brand-new 3D printing technologies.
Over the last 50 years, the industry in the US has grown 2.3 times while the number of people employed in it has shrunk by almost a third. Industrial innovation over the past 15 years has had no impact on industry margins or output (industry-wide).
Considering that the period of deep industry automation only lasted 50 years, a 2.3x increase doesn't look significant, does it?
For the last 15 years, the adoption of AI in the economy has been in full swing, but since 2009, many academics believe that growth has slowed, and overall performance is falling compared to the 1992 - 2007 period.
That said, the high intensity of innovation over the past 30 years (computers, internet, cell phones, wireless, biotechnology, nanotechnology, 3D printing, cloud technology, AI) has not led to an all-around increase in unemployment (on the contrary, there is a labor shortage).
Conclusion
Thus, the adoption of AI brings with it significant potential for progress and efficiency, as well as job reductions. Historical trends show that while technology can transform industries and processes, it does not necessarily lead to mass unemployment. As we continue to embrace AI, it is imperative to balance innovation and workforce considerations in pursuit of a future in which both coexist in harmony.